Every month, the Housing Development Board (HDB) releases a comprehensive database of resale transaction information on Data.gov.sg. Ohmyhome analyses this huge chunk of data and picks out the most relevant points and trends for readers.
The overall HDB resale price index reached 8.9% for the first 9 months of the year, exceeding the 5.0% price change in 2020. Even amidst the on-going pandemic, the HDB resale market has continuously remained buoyant.
Let’s breakdown the HDB resale market further to analyze what are the factors that are influencing these price movements.
High HDB resale volume
HDB resale transactions have been in an upward trend. Observing the number of transactions for the month of September, there was a dip of 7.9%(m-o-m) and an increase of 1.8%(y-o-y).
Cumulatively, based on preliminary numbers just released, the number of resale transactions for the first 9 months have reached a total of 22,575 flats. This is just 8.8% short of the overall transactions in 2020, which garnered 24,748 HDB resale transactions.
With only less than 3 months to the end of the year, Ohmyhome research estimates that 2021 figures surpass the previous year. 2021 might also set a new record for highest resale transactions in the last 10 years.
The gloomy construction sector
One major proponent of this increase is due to the uncertainties in the construction industry. As there have been delays in the construction of BTO flats, which has prompted buyers to shift their interest towards the HDB resale market. As most newly wed couples are choosing to move towards completed flats as opposed to waiting for an uncertain date for their completion of BTO flats.
Since Sept 2021, a sharp rise in infections have been reported in migrant worker dormitories. If the cases continue to rise and further workers are affected, it could lead to further disruptions in the construction industry. As some construction firms have gone out of business, further constraints could lead to more disruptions in the construction sector.
According to the numbers reported by The Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority (ACRA), the number of construction firms that have been ceasing operations this year has risen. A total of 1,706 construction firms closed down in the first 9 months of this year, as compared to 1,113 firms in 2020 – that’s a significant 53.3% increase, with further cessation expected in the construction sector before the end of the year.
BTO flat analysis
|Units Released (BTO)||Total Applicants||Overall Subscription rate||% Change in Applicants (with prev exercise)|
Despite the forecast of construction delays, that didn’t stop young buyers balloting for HDB flats. A whopping 40,400 applications were made for the 4,989 flats that were released in August, bringing the overall subscription rate to 8.1 (40,400 divided by 4,989).
This means for every 1 flat that was offered there are 8 applicants vying for it. Pent up demand from unsuccessful buyers of BTO flats would shift their interest towards the HDB resale market as well.
Top selling HDB towns
Source: Data.gov.sg as of 4 Oct, Ohmyhome Research
The top selling town for HDB resale transactions in September was Punggol, which garnered a total of 238 transactions. Punggol town was one of the earlier BTO estates that had the issue of construction delays announced in 2020. One of the affected BTO projects was Waterway Sunrise II, which had issues in meeting its construction timelines.
Top 10 Lowest Average Transacted Prices in September
|Town||4 ROOM||Town||5 ROOM|
|4||JURONG EAST||$445,340||CHOA CHU KANG||$545,119|
|6||BUKIT PANJANG||$453,465||JURONG EAST||$560,239|
|7||CHOA CHU KANG||$453,942||YISHUN||$560,765|
|8||ANG MO KIO||$464,040||PASIR RIS||$574,100|
|10||BUKIT BATOK||$484,875||BUKIT PANJANG||$586,740|
The top 10 lowest average transacted prices for both 4-room and 5-room flats have been in Sembawang.
Million dollar transactions on the rise
Million Dollar Transactions in September
|Town||Flat Type||Street Name||Size (Sq ft)||Resale Price||Resale Price ($psf)|
|1||BISHAN||5 ROOM||BISHAN ST 24||1,292||$1.295M||$1,003|
|2||KALLANG/WHAMPOA||3 ROOM||JLN BAHAGIA||2,594||$1.235M||$476|
|3||BUKIT MERAH||5 ROOM||HENDERSON RD||1,216||$1.220M||$1,003|
|4||CENTRAL AREA||4 ROOM||CANTONMENT RD||1,001||$1.200M||$1,199|
|5||CENTRAL AREA||5 ROOM||CANTONMENT RD||1,152||$1.188M||$1,031|
|6||BUKIT MERAH||5 ROOM||HAVELOCK RD||1,227||$1.140M||$929|
|7||CENTRAL AREA||5 ROOM||CANTONMENT RD||1,152||$1.125M||$977|
|8||BISHAN||EXECUTIVE||SIN MING AVE||2,142||$1.100M||$514|
|9||CENTRAL AREA||5 ROOM||CANTONMENT RD||1,152||$1.100M||$955|
|10||QUEENSTOWN||5 ROOM||DAWSON RD||1,163||$1.100M||$946|
|11||QUEENSTOWN||5 ROOM||DAWSON RD||1,119||$1.099M||$982|
|12||TOA PAYOH||5 ROOM||LOR 1A TOA PAYOH||1,259||$1.080M||$858|
|13||BISHAN||EXECUTIVE||SIN MING AVE||2,142||$1.060M||$495|
|14||QUEENSTOWN||5 ROOM||DAWSON RD||1,066||$1.050M||$985|
|15||CENTRAL AREA||5 ROOM||CANTONMENT RD||1,130||$1.040M||$920|
|16||BISHAN||EXECUTIVE||BISHAN ST 23||1,572||$1.015M||$646|
|17||BUKIT TIMAH||EXECUTIVE||TOH YI DR||1,572||$1.010M||$643|
|18||BISHAN||EXECUTIVE||SIN MING AVE||1,830||$1.003M||$548|
|19||BISHAN||EXECUTIVE||SIN MING AVE||2,013||$1.000M||$497|
|20||BUKIT MERAH||4 ROOM||BOON TIONG RD||1,001||$1.000M||$999|
|21||BUKIT MERAH||4 ROOM||BOON TIONG RD||990||$1.000M||$1,010|
|22||KALLANG/WHAMPOA||5 ROOM||BOON KENG RD||1,152||$1.000M||$868|
|23||TOA PAYOH||5 ROOM||LOR 1A TOA PAYOH||1,216||$1.000M||$822|
The number of million-dollar transactions continued its ascension for the year,with the highest transacted price of S$1.295 million from a 5 room flat transaction at 273A Bishan Street 24. This is the highest transaction price ever for a HDB flat.
The 174 million-dollar deals recorded in the first 9 months of 2021 have already surpassed the entire 2020. And it’s not over yet, as preliminary figures indicated there have been at least 2 million-dollar deals for October.
Certainty vs Uncertainty
The National Development Minister Desmond Lee did mention in parliament on October 5th that they are rolling out measures to assist contractors to complete ongoing projects. It was also highlighted in Parliament that BTO projects that were launched in 2020 and 2021, will have an estimated waiting time that will range from 3 to 5.5 years. However, certain projects such as Queen’s Arc that was launched in August this year is expected to take longer at about 5.5 years.
We can expect the sustained interest in the HDB resale market to continue for the next few months. As newly wed couples who are looking for an immediate home would be more enticed to look into the resale market as opposed to rolling the dice with a BTO flat.
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