No. of $1m HDB Flats Still Rising | Ohmyhome Insights

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Mohan Sandrasegeran

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Every month, the Housing Development Board (HDB) releases a comprehensive database of resale transaction information on Data.gov.sg. Ohmyhome analyses this huge chunk of data and picks out the most relevant points and trends for readers.  

The overall HDB resale price index reached 8.9% for the first 9 months of the year, exceeding the 5.0% price change in 2020. Even amidst the on-going pandemic, the HDB resale market has continuously remained buoyant. 

Let’s breakdown the HDB resale market further to analyze what are the factors that are influencing these price movements. 

High HDB resale volume

Source: Data.gov.sg as of 4 Oct, Ohmyhome Research

HDB resale transactions have been in an upward trend. Observing the number of transactions for the month of September, there was a dip of 7.9%(m-o-m) and an increase of 1.8%(y-o-y). 

Source: Data.gov.sg as of 4 Oct, Ohmyhome Research

Cumulatively, based on preliminary numbers just released, the number of resale transactions for the first 9 months have reached a total of 22,575 flats. This is just 8.8% short of the overall transactions in 2020, which garnered 24,748 HDB resale transactions. 

With only less than 3 months to the end of the year, Ohmyhome research estimates that 2021 figures surpass the previous year. 2021 might also set a new record for  highest resale transactions in the last 10 years.  

The gloomy construction sector 

One major proponent of this increase is due to the uncertainties in the construction industry. As there have been delays in the construction of BTO flats, which has prompted buyers to shift their interest towards the HDB resale market. As most newly wed couples are choosing to move towards completed flats as opposed to waiting for an uncertain date for their completion of BTO flats. 

Source: ACRA, Ohmyhome Research

Since Sept 2021, a sharp rise in infections have been reported in migrant worker dormitories. If the cases continue to rise and further workers are affected, it could lead to further disruptions in the construction industry. As some construction firms have gone out of business, further constraints could lead to more disruptions in the construction sector. 

According to the numbers reported by The Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority (ACRA), the number of construction firms that have been ceasing operations this year has risen. A total of 1,706 construction firms closed down in the first 9 months of this year, as compared to 1,113 firms in 2020 – that’s a significant 53.3% increase, with further cessation expected in the construction sector before the end of the year. 

BTO flat analysis

 Units Released (BTO)Total ApplicantsOverall Subscription rate% Change in Applicants (with prev exercise)
Feb 203,09523,8057.734.8%
Aug 207,86241,3065.373.5%
Nov 205,79526,2554.5-36.4%
Feb 213,74017,0914.6-34.9%
May 213,87918,5274.88.4%
Aug 214,98940,4008.1118.1%
Source: HDB, Ohmyhome Research

Despite the forecast of construction delays, that didn’t stop young buyers balloting for HDB flats. A whopping 40,400 applications were made for the 4,989 flats that were released in August, bringing the overall subscription rate to 8.1 (40,400 divided by 4,989). 

This means for every 1 flat that was offered there are 8 applicants vying for it. Pent up demand from unsuccessful  buyers of BTO flats would shift their interest towards the HDB resale market as well.  

Top selling HDB towns 

Source: Data.gov.sg as of 4 Oct, Ohmyhome Research

The top selling town for HDB resale transactions in September was  Punggol, which garnered a total of 238 transactions. Punggol town  was one of the earlier BTO estates that had the issue of construction delays announced in 2020. One of the affected BTO projects was Waterway Sunrise II, which had issues in meeting its construction timelines. 

Top 10 Lowest Average Transacted Prices in September

Town4 ROOMTown5 ROOM
1SEMBAWANG$411,988SEMBAWANG$503,214
2WOODLANDS$422,677JURONG WEST$516,294
3YISHUN$430,665WOODLANDS$516,350
4JURONG EAST$445,340CHOA CHU KANG$545,119
5JURONG WEST$448,602SENGKANG$551,351
6BUKIT PANJANG$453,465JURONG EAST$560,239
7CHOA CHU KANG$453,942YISHUN$560,765
8ANG MO KIO$464,040PASIR RIS$574,100
9HOUGANG$471,562PUNGGOL$577,758
10BUKIT BATOK$484,875BUKIT PANJANG$586,740
Source: Data.gov.sg as of 4 Oct, Ohmyhome Research

The top 10 lowest average transacted prices for both 4-room and 5-room flats have been in Sembawang. 

Million dollar transactions on the rise

Million Dollar Transactions in September

TownFlat TypeStreet NameSize (Sq ft)Resale PriceResale Price ($psf)
1BISHAN5 ROOMBISHAN ST 241,292$1.295M$1,003
2KALLANG/WHAMPOA3 ROOMJLN BAHAGIA2,594$1.235M$476
3BUKIT MERAH5 ROOMHENDERSON RD1,216$1.220M$1,003
4CENTRAL AREA4 ROOMCANTONMENT RD1,001$1.200M$1,199
5CENTRAL AREA5 ROOMCANTONMENT RD1,152$1.188M$1,031
6BUKIT MERAH5 ROOMHAVELOCK RD1,227$1.140M$929
7CENTRAL AREA5 ROOMCANTONMENT RD1,152$1.125M$977
8BISHANEXECUTIVESIN MING AVE2,142$1.100M$514
9CENTRAL AREA5 ROOMCANTONMENT RD1,152$1.100M$955
10QUEENSTOWN5 ROOMDAWSON RD1,163$1.100M$946
11QUEENSTOWN5 ROOMDAWSON RD1,119$1.099M$982
12TOA PAYOH5 ROOMLOR 1A TOA PAYOH1,259$1.080M$858
13BISHANEXECUTIVESIN MING AVE2,142$1.060M$495
14QUEENSTOWN5 ROOMDAWSON RD1,066$1.050M$985
15CENTRAL AREA5 ROOMCANTONMENT RD1,130$1.040M$920
16BISHANEXECUTIVEBISHAN ST 231,572$1.015M$646
17BUKIT TIMAHEXECUTIVETOH YI DR1,572$1.010M$643
18BISHANEXECUTIVESIN MING AVE1,830$1.003M$548
19BISHANEXECUTIVESIN MING AVE2,013$1.000M$497
20BUKIT MERAH4 ROOMBOON TIONG RD1,001$1.000M$999
21BUKIT MERAH4 ROOMBOON TIONG RD990$1.000M$1,010
22KALLANG/WHAMPOA5 ROOMBOON KENG RD1,152$1.000M$868
23TOA PAYOH5 ROOMLOR 1A TOA PAYOH1,216$1.000M$822
Source: Data.gov.sg as of 4 Oct, Ohmyhome Research

The number of million-dollar transactions continued its ascension for the year,with the highest transacted price of S$1.295 million from a 5 room flat transaction at 273A Bishan Street 24. This is the highest transaction price ever for a HDB flat. 

Source: Data.gov.sg as of 4 Oct, Ohmyhome Research

· 

Source: Data.gov.sg as of 4 Oct, Ohmyhome Research

The 174 million-dollar deals recorded in the first 9 months of 2021 have already surpassed the entire 2020. And it’s not over yet, as preliminary figures indicated there have been at least 2 million-dollar deals for October. 

Certainty vs Uncertainty

The National Development Minister Desmond Lee did mention in parliament on October 5th that they are rolling out measures to assist contractors to complete ongoing projects. It was also highlighted in Parliament that BTO projects that were launched in 2020 and 2021,  will have an estimated waiting time that will range from 3 to 5.5 years. However, certain projects such as Queen’s Arc that was launched in August this year is expected to take longer at about 5.5 years. 

We can expect the sustained interest in the HDB resale market to continue for the next few months. As newly wed couples who are looking for an immediate home would be more enticed to look into the resale market as opposed to rolling the dice with a BTO flat.   

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