Every quarter, The Housing & Development Board (HDB) releases a comprehensive database of price indices and sales volume for both the public housing segment. Ohmyhome analyses this huge chunk of data and picks out the most relevant points and trends for readers.
Significant 19.4% increase in 3Q21 HDB resale transactions
First, let’s look at quarterly changes before heading to the bigger picture. HDB resale transactions rose significantly by 19.4%(q-o-q), with 8,433 resale flats transacted as compared to the 7,063 flats sold in Q2 2021. This also exceeded the number of transactions sold in the 3Q 2020 as well – by 8.3%.
Top performing HDB towns in 3Q21: Punggol, Sengkang
Based on the information gathered from data.gov, the top selling town in 3Q21 was Punggol with 391 units transacted at an average price of $496k. Sengkang was second with a total of 384 transactions sold at an average price of $487k.
Both are newer towns, with longer remaining lease balance. This is especially true for the case of Punggol. Buyers who are looking to move in without doing major renovations would be attracted to these towns with younger HDB flats. Furthermore, there were no new BTO launches in Punggol this year as well.
Upon further breakdown, a total of 1,638 HDB flats in Punggol were expected to reach MOP this year. This could have contributed to the high 84.9% figure of the flats transacted at Punggol, which had a remaining lease of between 90-95 years.
The biggest impact from this quarterly report is the big increase for total resale transactions compared to 2020. For the first 9 months of 2021, a total of 23,077 HDB flats – a 34.9% surge compared to the 17,106 flats transacted in the same time period in 2020.
The demand for HDB flats was potentially fuelled by the uncertainties in the BTO flat segments, as newly-wed couples who were looking for immediate occupation began diverting their interest toward the resale market.
HDB resale prices grew by 9.1% in the first 9 months of 2021
HDB resale prices have increased 2.9% from 2Q21 to 3Q21. In contrast, prices for the first 3 quarters of 2021 rose by 9.1%. Essentially, increased demand and interest in the HDB resale market has strengthened the resale prices. However, historically double digit growth in the price index is not sustainable for the long term.
According to the data retrieved from data.gov.sg, the average prices of the different HDB flat types rose across the board in 3Q21, the highest being a 5.6% increase between 1Q21 and 3Q21 for 4-room flats.
Further analysis showed that the town of Bukit Batok had the highest price change of 11.2% between 2Q21 and 3Q21 for a 4 room flat. This is a seller’s market, as prices have appreciated across the different towns.
There have been 174 million-dollar HDB resale transactions for the first 9 months of the year, and is the highest ever recorded by this yardstick. Preliminary data suggests that there have been 15 such deals in October as well. Looking back at the entire 2020, there were only a total 82 such deals.
Outlook for Last Quarter of 2021
According to the recent press release from HDB, for ongoing BTO projects, the average waiting time is expected to be at 4 to 5 years. To be more specific, BTO projects are expected to complete in an estimated 4.4 years, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
Although resale flats can be pricier as compared to BTO flats, the sale process and the waiting time generally provides an ease of convenience for aspiring buyers.
HDB resale transactions are currently on track to surpass 2020’s overall number of 24,748. We estimate that the overall HDB resale volume for the year will be in the range of 26,000 to 28,000. This would be the highest transaction since 2012, when there were a total of 25,094 HDB resale transactions in the year.
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